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What Happened in Florida

This is the tenth part in my series analyzing the swing states in the 2020 presidential election. In this part, we turn to Florida, which shares many similarities to Texas regarding its demographics and its voting behavior. Consider this part to be an extension of my discussion of Texas with regards to Hispanic voters and how they deviated from their national “constituency”.

With that said, let’s dive in.

Big Picture

Joe Biden- 5,297,045 (47.86 percent, up 0.04 percent from Clinton in 2016)

Donald Trump- 5,668,731 (51.22 percent, up 2.20 percent from 2016)

As of Election Day, there have been 814,801 COVID cases in Florida, the third most of any state. This makes sense, given that Florida is the third largest state by population; however, the incidence rate is 3.8 percent, ranking 10th among the states. On the other hand, there have been 16,890 deaths, which ranks fourth among the states, but the fatality rate of 2.1 percent ranks 24th among the states. And economically, the impact has been fairly consistent with the rest of the country, with the unemployment rate going from 4.3 percent in March to 13.5 percent in April (a 9.2-point increase that ranks 25th among the states). So overall, while the impact of the pandemic in Florida may seem large based on raw numbers, it’s actually more modest relative to its population.

As of Election Day, there have also been 814 BLM protests in Florida, the third most of any state. Similar to Texas, this immense protest activity is driven by the state’s large population, multitude of large cities, and favorable demographics. For one, Florida has multiple centers for protest activity, such as Miami, Orlando, Tampa, St. Petersburg, Tallahassee, and Jacksonville, as well as multiple major universities. Furthermore, Florida has the second largest black population in the country by raw numbers (but only 13th by percentage of the total population), the fourth most college graduates (but only 30th by percentage), and the fourth largest young adult population (but 48th by percentage).

As for race, Biden won 89 percent of black voters (up from 84 percent in 2016), as well as 37 percent of white voters (up from 32 percent in 2016). But the critical factor is that he only won 53 percent of Hispanic voters, down from the 62 percent Clinton received in 2016. While Biden did win 69 percent of Puerto Rican voters, Hispanic residents of Cuban and Venezuelan descent make up a considerable chunk of Florida’s electorate, especially in Miami. As will be discussed in the following section, this collapse of Democratic support among these voters in Miami-Dade County is a critical factor in explaining Biden’s loss statewide. On the other hand, President Trump won 62 percent of white voters and 46 percent of Hispanic voters, including 56 percent of voters of Cuban-American voters (up from 54 percent in 2016).

As for educational attainment, Biden won 51 percent of college graduates and 43 percent of white college graduates, both of which are significant improvements from Clinton’s 2016 performance. But ultimately, President Trump carried 57 percent of white college graduates, although this is a 5-point loss from his 2016 showing. In addition, Trump carried 53 percent of voters without a college degree as well as 66 percent of white voters without a college degree, both of which are largely consistent with his 2016 performance.

As for age, there’s evidence that Biden lost ground. On one hand, Biden won 60 percent of voters in the 18–29 bracket (up from the 54 percent Clinton received). He also made some improvement with voters over 65, receiving 45 percent of these voters, as well as voters in the 45–64 bracket, receiving 45 percent of those voters. But outside the 18–29 age bracket, President Trump still won somewhat convincingly among the other age brackets, even gaining ground among voters in the 30–44 bracket, receiving 50 percent of those voters (an 11-point improvement from four years ago).

Geographically, Biden won 55 percent of urban voters, a 2-point improvement from Clinton. While he did make slight improvements with suburban voters, President Trump still won this group with 55 percent, which is a 2-point improvement his 2016 performance. Trump also won 61 percent of rural voters, the same that he received four years ago. So while Biden made modest inroads with suburban voters, this wasn’t nearly enough for him to capture the rest of the state.

Socioeconomically, 44 percent of Florida voters said their family’s financial situation is better than what it was four years ago (compared to 41 percent nationwide), of which 81 percent voted for President Trump. Meanwhile, 19 percent said their family’s financial situation is worse than what it was four years ago (compared to 20 percent nationwide), of which 84 percent voted for Joe Biden. And 36 percent said their family’s financial situation is the same as what it was four years (compared to 39 percent nationwide), of which 67 percent voted for Biden.

When asked about their most important issue, 38 percent of Florida voters said the economy (compared to 35 percent nationwide), of which 87 percent voted for President Trump. Meanwhile, 18 percent said the pandemic was the most important issue and 13 percent said racial inequality, of which 88 percent and 86 percent voted for Biden respectively. And when asked what was more important to accomplish, 49 percent prioritized containing the virus, of which 82 percent voted for Biden. On the other hand, 44 percent prioritized reopening the economy, of which 84 percent voted for Trump.

Now that we’ve gone over the exit polls, let’s run some regressions. First, here are various regression results for Biden’s county-level vote share.

To a large extent, we see results similar to that of other states. In this case, the COVID incidence rate is negatively associated with Biden’s vote share, indicating that he performed worse in the counties hit harder by the pandemic. There is also some evidence that the unemployment increase is positively associated with Biden’s vote share; however, this relationship is dependent on the specifications of the regression model. We see a negative relationship with the September unemployment rate, indicating that Biden performed worse in the areas that suffered from a sluggish economic recovery. And, similar to the other states covered, there is no relationship with the number of BLM protests.

Aside from these factors, we find that while the education gap is still persistent in Florida, with Biden enjoying greater support in counties with more college graduates and lower support in counties with fewer high school graduates. And interestingly, the share of Hispanic residents is positively associated with the Biden vote share, indicating that on average, Biden performs better in counties with more Hispanic residents; however, as we’ll discuss later, that doesn’t necessarily mean Biden did what he needed to in these particular areas.

Now, let’s look at the regression models for the Democratic vote share change between 2016 and 2020.

For the most part, these regressions reinforce the trends seen in Figure 1, with the education gap widening even further and the September unemployment rate being negatively associated with the change in Democratic vote share. Aside from this, however, nothing too extraordinary emerges from these regression results.

So with all this established, let’s dive into each of the subsections for Florida.

Solidly Democratic Counties

Alachua- Biden Hold

Biden- 89,704 (62.90 percent, up 3.93), Trump- 50,972 (35.74 percent, down 0.68)

OurProgress Projection- 65.08 for Biden (up 2.18), 34.92 for Trump (down 0.82)

Broward- Biden Hold

Biden- 618,752 (64.61 percent, down 1.90), Trump- 333,409 (34.81 percent, up 3.45)

OurProgress Projection- 69.15 for Biden (up 4.54), 30.85 for Trump (down 3.96)

Gadsden- Biden Hold

Biden- 16,153 (67.98 percent, up 0.05), Trump- 7,465 (31.42 percent, up 0.99)

OurProgress Projection- 67.12 for Biden (down 0.86), 32.88 for Trump (up 1.46)

Leon- Biden Hold

Biden- 103,517 (63.54 percent, up 3.02), Trump- 57,453 (35.26 percent, down 0.12)

OurProgress Projection- 64.42 for Biden (up 0.88), 35.58 for Trump (up 0.32)

Miami-Dade- Biden Hold

Biden- 617,864 (53.41 percent, down 10.26), Trump- 532,833 (46.06 percent, up 11.99)

OurProgress Projection- 65.68 for Biden (up 12.27), 34.32 for Trump (down 11.74)

Orange- Biden Hold

Biden- 395,014 (61.02 percent, up 0.63), Trump- 245,398 (37.90 percent, up 2.17)

OurProgress Projection- 66.40 for Biden (up 5.38), 33.60 for Trump (down 4.30)

Osceola- Biden Hold

Biden- 97,297 (56.42 percent, down 4.53), Trump- 73,480 (42.61 percent, up 6.74)

OurProgress Projection- 65.01 for Biden (up 8.59), 34.99 for Trump (down 7.62)

Palm Beach- Biden Hold

Biden- 433,572 (56.08 percent, down 0.49), Trump- 334,711 (43.29 percent, up 2.16)

OurProgress Projection- 59.50 for Biden (up 3.42), 40.50 for Trump (down 2.79)

First, there are eight solidly Democratic counties in Florida. In 2016, Clinton won this subsection with 62.1 percent of the vote, which was an improvement from the 61.8 percent President Obama won in 2012 and a net gain of 233,742 votes. While this wasn’t enough for Clinton to win statewide, it was a clear affirmation that the state’s Democratic backbone held strong. This time around, while Biden still won all eight counties, he underperformed in the subsection. While he netted an additional 221,474 votes from Clinton’s 2016 total, Biden only received 58.8 percent of the vote in the subsection, a clear drop that proved costly in winning the state.

By far, the biggest disappointment came in Miami-Dade, the subsection’s largest county, where Biden underperformed Clinton by a staggering 10.3 percentage points. In the past, Democrats have relied on winning big in Miami-Dade to provide a cushion for the more competitive portions of the state. In 2012, President Obama won the county by a margin of 208,459 votes. Four years later, Clinton won the county by a margin of greater margin of 290,147 votes. In 2020, however, Biden only won Miami-Dade by 85,031 votes.

Outside Miami-Dade, things weren’t particularly better. Biden also lost 1.9 percentage points from Clinton in Broward and 0.5 percentage points in Palm Beach, two large counties adjacent to Miami-Dade. While not as large or as predominantly Hispanic as Miami-Dade, these losses are likely spillover from that shift. Biden also 4.5 percentage points from Clinton in Osceola, a majority-Hispanic county located in the Orlando metropolitan area that was hit hard by the pandemic. And while Biden did make modest gains in Alachua and Leon, neither of these could make up for these heavy losses sustained elsewhere.

As of Election Day, there have been 418,484 COVID cases in this subsection, setting the incidence rate at 4.9 percent (above the state average). Miami-Dade accounts for a decent chunk of these cases and its incidence rate is almost 7 percent, a pretty staggering figure. Meanwhile, while its case load is relatively small, Gadsden’s small population means its incidence rate is also pretty high, at 6.7 percent. And while none of the remaining counties are above the subsection aggregate, none are below 3 percent incidence either. On the other hand, there have been 7,831 deaths in this subsection, setting the fatality rate at 1.9 percent (slightly below the state average). Regarding timing, there was a massive spike in cases from the early months to the summer months. And while the cases in the early fall months were not as high, they were still considerably higher than those from the spring. And for unemployment, the impact in this subsection was slightly larger in this subsection than the rest of the state, going from 4.1 percent in March to 14.1 percent in April. Some counties, particularly those in the northern half of the state (such as Alachua, Gadsden, and Leon) had relatively minor increases in unemployment of under 5 percentage points. Other counties, especially those in the tourism-driven Orlando metropolitan area, had more substantial hits, with a 13.1-point increase in Orange and a 16.9-point increase in Osceola. And while the subsection has somewhat recovered, the unemployment rate remained at 9.9 percent as of September, with Orange, Osceola, and Miami-Dade’s rates remaining in double digits.

Finally, as of Election Day, there have been 360 BLM protests in this subsection, with 94 occurring in Miami-Dade, 66 in Palm Beach, 65 in Orange, 59 in Broward, 42 in Leon, and 25 in Alachua. Not only was protest activity high across the subsection, but it was spread out across many counties within it. This isn’t surprising, given its large population and demographic breakdown. 22.4 percent of the subsection’s population is black, including 30.2 percent of Broward’s population, 32 percent of Leon’s, and 55.5 percent of neighboring Gadsden’s. Not to mention that several counties are highly educated, with college graduates comprising 42.5 percent of Alachua’s population, 45.7 percent of Leon’s, and 35.7 percent of Palm Beach’s. Overall, the combination of population size and favorable demographics made this subsection a strong hub for protest activity.

Swing Counties

Duval- Biden Flip

Biden- 252,556 (51.25 percent, up 3.70), Trump- 233,762 (47.43 percent, down 1.49)

OurProgress Projection- 52.05 for Biden (up 0.80), 47.95 for Trump (up 0.52)

Hillsborough- Biden Hold

Biden- 376,367 (52.86 percent, up 1.34), Trump- 327,398 (45.98 percent, up 1.33)

OurProgress Projection- 54.45 for Biden (up 1.59), 45.55 for Trump (down 0.43)

Jefferson- Trump Hold

Biden- 3,897 (46.11 percent, down 0.20), Trump- 4,479 (53 percent, up 1.59)

OurProgress Projection- 43.21 for Biden (down 2.90), 56.79 for Trump (up 3.79)

Pinellas- Biden Flip

Biden- 277,450 (49.57 percent, up 2.11), Trump- 276,209 (49.35 percent, up 0.77)

OurProgress Projection- 51.73 for Biden (up 2.16), 48.27 for Trump (down 1.08)

Seminole- Biden Flip

Biden- 132,528 (50.81 percent, up 3.72), Trump- 125,241 (48.02 percent, down 0.64)

OurProgress Projection- 52.69 for Biden (up 1.88), 47.31 for Trump (down 0.71)

St. Lucie- Trump Hold

Biden- 84,137 (48.87 percent, up 1.38), Trump- 86,831 (50.43 percent, up 0.53)

OurProgress Projection- 48.62 for Biden (down 0.25), 51.38 for Trump (up 0.95)

Next, there are six swing counties in Florida. For the most part, the counties in this subsection is either urban or suburban, which presented a strong opportunity for the Biden campaign to infiltrate. In 2016, Clinton only won one county with just 48.7 percent of the vote, a downgrade from President Obama winning four of these counties with 50.7 percent of the vote. While the losses were minor, they were sustained fairly evenly across all counties within the subsection.

Now in 2020, Biden capitalized in the subsection, winning four counties with 51.1 percent of the vote. While he failed to win back Jefferson or St. Lucie, two counties Obama had won, Biden made up for these losses by flipping Duval and Seminole, both of which are pretty lucrative prizes. Traditionally Republican despite containing the city of Jacksonville, Biden became the first Democrat to win Duval County since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Biden also became the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to win Seminole County, which consists of historically conservative suburbs of Orlando. Although Biden only made 3.7-point improvements in each of these counties, these flips are consistent with his broad-range success at winning over suburban voters that typically side with Republican candidates.

Aside from these, the Tampa-St. Petersburg metropolitan area is a prominent portion of this section which Biden made up substantial ground in. After Clinton lost it in 2016, Biden recaptured Pinellas with a 2.1-point boost. Meanwhile, he shored up support in Hillsborough, which includes the city of Tampa. Once again, this is another large batch of urban and suburban voters that Biden was able to shift into his column, even if it was as substantial of a shift as in other metropolitan areas for other states.

As of Election Day, there have been 132,107 COVID cases in this subsection, setting the incidence rate at 3.1 percent (below the state average). While there is some variation between the counties, there aren’t any significant outliers in this subsection. On the other hand, there have been 2,773 deaths in this subsection as of Election Day, setting the fatality rate at 2.1 percent (about the same as the state average). Regarding timing, there was also a sharp rise in cases from the spring months to the summer months. And while the cases in the early fall were not as numerous as the summer months, the load was still well above that of the spring. And for unemployment, the impact of the pandemic was more mild than the rest of the state, going from 4.3 percent in March to 12.7 percent in April. For the most part, the counties remain fairly close to this aggregate, although Jefferson had a fairly low April rate of 7.5 percent. While this subsection has largely recovered in the months since April, the unemployment rate remained at 6 percent as of September.

Finally, as of Election Day, there have been 171 BLM protests in this subsection, with 60 in Hillsborough, 53 in Pinellas, and 44 in Duval. Similar to the solidly Democratic counties, this subsection has a good combination of population size and favorable demographics that explain the extent of this protest activity. Particularly, 19.1 percent of the population is black, including 30.8 percent of Duval. Furthermore, regarding educational attainment, 29.2 percent of Duval’s population has a bachelor’s degree or higher, as is 32.7 percent of Hillsborough and 31 percent of Pinellas. Overall, the combination of population size and favorable demographics made this subsection a strong hub for protest activity.

Obama-Trump Counties

Jefferson- Trump Hold

Biden- 3,897 (46.11 percent, down 0.20), Trump- 4,479 (53 percent, up 1.59)

OurProgress Projection- 43.21 for Biden (down 2.90), 56.79 for Trump (up 3.79)

Monroe- Trump Hold

Biden- 21,881 (45.56 percent, up 0.90), Trump- 25,693 (53.49 percent, up 1.93)

OurProgress Projection- 43.90 for Biden (down 1.66), 56.10 for Trump (up 2.61)

Pinellas- Biden Flip

Biden- 277,450 (49.57 percent, up 2.11), Trump- 276,209 (49.35 percent, up 0.77)

OurProgress Projection- 51.73 for Biden (up 2.16), 48.27 for Trump (down 1.08)

St. Lucie- Trump Hold

Biden- 84,137 (48.87 percent, up 1.38), Trump- 86,831 (50.43 percent, up 0.53)

OurProgress Projection- 48.62 for Biden (down 0.25), 51.38 for Trump (up 0.95)

Next, there are four Obama-Trump counties in Florida, three of which overlap with the swing counties. The one inclusion is Monroe, which includes the Florida Keys and Key West. Similar to the flipped county subsection in Texas, the subsection here is heavily weighted by one large county, Pinellas, in its aggregate figures. In 2012, President Obama won all four of these counties with 52.3 percent of the vote. Four years later, Clinton faltered, only receiving 47.3 percent of the vote, translating to a net loss of 5,228 votes. This time, while he failed to win back any of the three smaller counties, Biden did flip back Pinellas and came away with 49.1 percent of the vote, translating to a net gain of 64,271 votes from Clinton.

For the most part, one can see how Trump was successful in these areas. For one, this subsection is older than the rest of the country, with a quarter of its population being over the age of 65. While there are some college graduates in this county, Monroe (the county with the highest percentage) still only has a third of its population with a bachelor’s degree. And while there are some pockets of nonwhite voters, this subsection is not as racially diverse as the other subsections in the state. Pinellas flipping back to Biden is largely a function of it being a fairly urban county, including the city of St. Petersburg and its surrounding suburbs.

As of Election Day, there have been 38,826 COVID cases in this subsection, setting the incidence rate at 2.8 percent (below the state average). Jefferson has the highest incidence rate at 4.8 percent, but generally speaking, the counties in this subsection fall fairly close to the aggregate figure. On the other hand, there have been 1,200 deaths in this subsection as of Election Day, setting the fatality rate at 3.1 percent (above the state average). Regarding timing, there was also a sharp rise in cases from the spring months to the summer months. And while the cases in the early fall were not as numerous as the summer months, the load was still well above that of the spring. And for unemployment, this subsection largely follows that of the rest of the state, going from 4.3 percent in March to 14.3 percent in April. Jefferson took a much milder hit (from 4.5 percent to 7.5 percent), while Monroe took a more significant hit (from 2.8 percent to 17.7 percent), likely due to its dependence on tourism. While this subsection has largely recovered in the months since then, the unemployment rate remained at 6 percent as of Election Day.

Finally, as of Election Day, there have only been 61 BLM protests in this subsection, with the vast majority occurring in Pinellas. This makes sense given that Pinellas is the only county with a notable urban center. But aside from this, the subsection doesn’t have favorable demographics, with fewer nonwhite voters, college graduates, and young adults than the rest of the state.

Reclassifications

As with the other states, there are a few reclassifications for counties based on how their voting behavior changed from 2016 to 2020. These changes are reflected below.

Duval (Trump to Biden)

Miami-Dade (Solidly Democratic to Swing)

Monroe (Solidly Republican to Swing)

Pinellas (Trump to Biden)

Seminole (Trump to Biden)

As shown above, three of the four reclassified counties shifted to the left of their 2016 classifications, with two of them flipping from Trump to Biden altogether. The one exception, however, is the most critical, with Miami-Dade going from solidly Democratic to a swing county that Biden won. While Biden winning Miami-Dade was critical, President Trump’s ability to make that county competitive in the first place allowed him to win the state by a relatively comfortable margin.

Aside from this, most of these counties are either urban or suburban in nature, with two of them containing large cities in Miami and St. Petersburg, and one containing suburbs for Orlando. Aside from Miami-Dade, these characteristics are consistent with trends seen in the rest of the country, with Biden being more competitive among suburban voters than Clinton was in 2016. The one exception is Monroe, which contains a medium-sized city in Key West. While it was unlikely Biden would win Monroe given its large retiree population and the negative effects of public health restrictions on the county’s tourism-driven economy, he made enough improvements in the county to bump it up to a swing county.

Conclusion

I will acknowledge that I underestimated how much high Republican turnout helped out Trump in Miami-Dade, but that did not singlehandedly cost Biden Florida. Even if Biden had matched Clinton’s vote share in Miami-Dade, he would have only netted 118,740 votes, not enough to overcome the statewide margin of 371,686 votes. If we account for Miami-Dade’s spillover effects in Broward and Palm Beach by having Biden match Clinton’s vote shares there, that brings up his net gain to 140,717, still not enough to capture him the state.

Instead, we can turn to other areas of the state where Biden underperformed Clinton, particularly in Osceola. In this case, we can attribute the loss there more to economic factors, especially given how tourism plays a major role in the Orlando metropolitan area. Applying the same exercise to that county adds about 7,806 votes to Biden’s total. So to that end, there are clear opportunities where Biden could have at least matched Clinton’s total.

But ultimately, in a state like Florida, merely matching Clinton’s total wasn’t going to give Biden the state. As a supposedly better candidate than Clinton running on a more favorable platform, Biden should have performed better than Clinton in the solidly Democratic counties while also making gains in the swing counties. While credit should be given to Biden for expanding the Democratic map to places like Duval and Pinellas, Biden’s failure to respond effectively to President Trump’s anti-socialist messaging to Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade, as well as Trump’s opposition to public health restrictions in tourism-dependent areas of the state that have incurred significant economic costs from these policies, cost Biden the state. And while Biden may have won the election, President Trump’s unanticipated success in heavily Hispanic regions of Florida will likely be a critical factor in the Republican Party’s re-evaluation of its platform and electoral strategy moving forward. Rather than dismissing Trump and his platform as a politically damaging combination, places like Miami-Dade give credence to Trump’s allies in future elections.

So that’s it for this part of this series. If you enjoyed this, please like and follow the Book Aisle. Also share this article on Facebook, LinkedIn, and other social media platforms.

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